Football is back. Woohoo! After having another bye, this time for the June Queens Birthday long weekend, Hills Football League Division 1 action returns. Round 9 sees the Blackwood Football Club travel up the hill to Arkaba Oval to play the Mt Lofty Football Club.
Currently in 2017 Blackwood are the only undefeated side in the Division 1 A Grade ranks, recording six wins and a draw from their opening eight matches, whilst Mt Lofty have only won the solidary game to be sitting in eighth position on the ladder.
Recent past
Over the recent past, the Blackwood Football Club holds the wood over Mt Lofty winning nine of the past twelve matches, including six on the trot. The last time Blackwood lost to the Mt Lofty Football Club in the A Grade was back in 2012 in Round 10 where inaccurate kicking resulted in a 14 point loss, 4.13.37 to Mt Lofty 7.9.51.
Since that day on June 23, Blackwood has won the next six games against Mt Lofty by an average of 44 points, kicking at least 15 goals in four of the six matches. Overall since 2006 the sides have met on 24 occasions with Blackwood winning 12 matches compared to Mt Lofty who have won 13 matches. Of the 10 matches between the sides since 2006 at Arkaba Oval, Blackwood has only won on three occasions with the results as follows:
2016: Blackwood 9.14.68 defeated Mt Lofty 4.6.30
2015: Blackwood 15.4.94 defeated Mt Lofty 11.10.76
2014: No game played as Mt Lofty in Division 2
2013: Blackwood 15.7.97 defeated Mt Lofty 8.15.63
2012: Blackwood 4.13.37 defeated by Mt Lofty 7.9.51
2011: Blackwood 8.5.53 defeated by Mt Lofty 9.14.68
2010: Blackwood 8.8.56 defeated by Mt Lofty 8.18.66
2009: Blackwood 9.14.68 defeated by Mt Lofty 9.20.76
2008: Blackwood 9.6.60 defeated by Mt Lofty 13.15.93
2007: Blackwood 4.2.26 defeated by Mt Lofty 18.18.126
2006: Blackwood 0.3.3 defeated by Mt Lofty 15.16.106
Season 2017
After the completion of the first eight rounds of the season, the ladder and statistics are started to take shape. From the first eight matches the statistics show:
Blackwood has the second best forward line in the competition kicking on average 99 points for per match. This compares with Mt Lofty who have average 58 points for in 2017.
Being hard to score against is a vital part of being a successful side in the Hills Football League. To date in 2017, the Woods have the second best defence conceding on average 57 points per game, whilst Mt Lofty has the eighth best defence conceding on average 99 points.
This puts both sides at different ends of the scale in terms of differential, with Blackwood +42 compared to Mt Lofty who are -41. So theoretically before the bounce, the statistics show Blackwood should win the match by 83 points.
Harry Wakes completes the definition of ‘head over the ball’
Michael Minuzzo kicks a goal at the southern end of the ground
Upset territory
We know football doesn’t always work the way that you want it to. The favourite doesn’t always win the game. Upsets do occur. Looking at all games played in 2017, four out of the thirty-two matches played in the Hills Division 1 A-Grade competition have been won by a side which is trailing in the differential. These matches were:
Round 8 – Blackwood v Hahndorf (Blackwood are -12 in differential)
Round 6 – Onkaparinga Valley v Uraidla Districts (Onkaparinga Valley are -19 in differential)
Round 4 – Echunga v Onkaparinga Valley (Echunga are -18 in differential)
Round 2 – Torrens Valley v Onkaparinga Valley (Torrens Valley are -25 in differential)
These figures continue the trend from 2016, where up until the end of Round 8 five of forty games played were won by sides with a negative differential. This means is 12.5% of all games played are won by the underdog. The biggest upset in 2016 (on differential) was the Round 10 clash between Onkaparinga Valley and Hahndorf at Balhannah (-66).
Overall the statistics show that whilst upsets aren’t overly common to date in 2017, they do occur. On average one in seven games is won by the underdog side. Of the games won by sides with negative differential in 2017, all the sides have been playing at home to cause the boil over and restricted the losing sides to four goals less per match. So far the biggest upset to date in 2017 (based on differential) was the Round 2 clash between Torrens Valley and Onkaparinga Valley at Mt Torrens. (Torrens Valley are -25 on that game).
This means clubs need to be wary when travelling on the road to a side below them. The home underdog will lift for these games and look to cause an upset!
Defender Brad Jones attempts to pick the ball up
There’s not escaping the pressure of the Woods
Players to watch
Although Mt Lofty currently sit in eighth position on the ladder, they are a side which you can not underestimate. Some players which the Woods must watch include:
Sam Miles – A genuine star of the competition Miles is key man for the Mt Lofty Football Club. The attacking midfielder is a key link player for the side with his damaging kick and hard running. Since 2016 he has played 17 matches in which he has been in the best players on 13 occasions whilst averaging 1.0 goals per game.
Mark Nielsen – A key pillar for the Devils, Nielsen is relied on down back to thwart the attacking forays of the opposition sides. He has played 25 games for the Devils since the start of 2016 being in the best players 68% of matches.
Brad Burch – The stalwart of the club recently played his 250th match for the Devils and is still a key player. Since the start of 2016 he has played 23 matches being in the best players on 14 occasions. More remarkable is the durability of Burch which is something to be admired. Of the 131 matches he has played since 2010, he has been in the best players on 92 occasions.
Luke O’Brien – A local product of the club, O’Brien is a player who provides them drive and genuine leg speed across the field. Since 2016 he has played 22 matches being in the best players on 11 occasions.
Ben Gordon – The key forward has returned to the club after spending the previous two seasons at the Tanunda Magpies in 2016 and Loxton Tigers in 2015. A premiership hero during the clubs successful era in the mid-2000s and in 2014 where he kicked 106 goals in the clubs Country Division A Grade premiership. Returning in 2017 he is a key man inside the forward 50 kicking 15 goals to date in 5 games. He has kicked 26% of goals overall for Mt Lofty in 2017.
Michael Minuzzo looks to lay a tackle on his opponent
Scott Bricknell breaks away from the pack
Final thought
With fine conditions expected this Saturday afternoon, the deck at Arkaba Oval should be in a great condition, something rarely said around the Hills Football League traps. This should present the opportunity for both sides to play fast attacking football.
Both sides will look to trap the opposition in the scoreboard pocket and swiftly move the ball down the slope when they have the opportunity. The greater spread of goal kicking options for Blackwood will be a tough task for Mt Lofty to handle. I can see Mt Lofty battling hard early but the class of the Woods will come through at the end with Blackwood to continue their good start to the season and record another win.
See you the football #honourthecolours
